Karzai Considers Early Vote, Before Foreign Forces Leave

DION NISSENBAUM
Thursday, 26-April-2012

 

KABUL: Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Thursday that he was considering calling early presidential elections next year in an effort to take advantage of the coalition military presence, a move that could raise the chances of securing the country's first peaceful transfer of power in modern history.

Mr. Karzai, who is set to end his second five-year term in 2014, said such an early polling would help Afghanistan avoid conducting a political campaign after the U.S.-led coalition forces transfer security responsibilities and head home. Many people worry security will deteriorate as the withdrawal culminates.

Under the constitution, Mr. Karzai isn't eligible to run again.

But some Afghans wondered if the president's move was a political ploy to extend his influence and whether such an election could be held at all, given the country's constitutional rules.

Mr. Karzai told reporters Thursday that he has discussed with his aides whether to hold the presidential election next year or, alternatively, to ask the U.S.-led coalition to speed up the transition set for 2014. White House officials, too, have proposed such a quicker pullout.

"There are those favorable to both the ideas," Mr. Karzai said at a palace news conference with Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the visiting secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "I have not made the final decision yet—and it will not be soon. But I am thinking about this, and I will do what is good for this country in either case."

A peaceful transfer of power is considered by many in the international community to be one of the best benchmarks of success as coalition forces prepare to end their major military presence in Afghanistan.

Mr. Karzai's fraud-marred re-election in 2009 was widely viewed as a black mark for U.S.-led efforts to stabilize Afghanistan and establish a credible government. Parliamentary elections the following year saw a record low turnout, and were also marked by fraud allegations.

Some politicians looking to succeed Mr. Karzai have voiced concerns that the Afghan president might use insurgent violence in 2014 as an excuse to cancel the election and hold on to power. Mr. Karzai has repeatedly said he intends to stand down once his term expires.
Mr. Karzai didn't explain how practically he could move up the election date. Short of changing the constitution, election officials said, the only way he could call an early election would be to resign, a decision that would result in a special election within three months.

The constitution can only be changed by the so-called constitutional Loya Jirga, an assembly made up of national lawmakers and the heads of provincial and district councils. Elections to these district councils haven't been held, in part because many of these districts are under insurgent control.

The prospect of a nationwide vote in 2013 was met with tentative support from some rivals of Mr. Karzai and electoral reform advocates who are willing to back the idea—if the president ensures that the process is fair and doesn't renege on his pledge to stand down.

"This government has systematically failed to meet the expectations of the nation," said Hanif Atmar, the former Afghan interior minister and possible presidential candidate who was forced from his post by Mr. Karzai in 2010. "We all want a change."

Nader Nadery, chairman of the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, said a transparent election next year could bolster Mr. Karzai's achievements. "If he genuinely wants to see a peaceful transfer of power, then this will be his greatest legacy," he said.

Despite his pledges, some fear that Mr. Karzai still might try to use electoral uncertainty to retain the presidency—or install his favored successor. Mr. Karzai has said he doesn't want his brother Qayyum, rumored as a likely presidential candidate, to run.

"I am a bit more cynical I guess," said one Western diplomat in Kabul. "It will not change anything. This regime will continue—with or without the present president—whether the election takes place in 2013 or 2014."

Earlier this year, Mr. Karzai replaced three of the five members of the country's election commission with some of his allies, a move that generated concerns that the president was trying to pack the body with cronies.

Moving up the election could prevent lawmakers from revising the laws to ensure more transparency in the process, said Fawzia Kofi, an Afghan lawmaker.

"It's all a game," she said. "I think Karzai or his candidate will have all the resources from all the structures of government."

The race to succeed Mr. Karzai is likely to be crowded. A large number of Afghan leaders are already exploring runs for president, including Mr. Atmar, Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister now overseeing the country's transition process, and Ali Jalali, another former interior minister.

Mr. Karzai's 2009 re-election campaign became a polarizing chapter that drove a serious wedge between the Afghan president and his international allies.

Mr. Karzai has repeatedly complained that the U.S. and the U.N. have tried to engineer his ouster in the election, a belief that poisoned his relationship with the Obama administration.

After the presidential election, Mr. Karzai moved to assert control over the Electoral Complaints Commission, a U.N.-run watchdog that threw out as fraudulent a million votes reported as cast for him in 2009.

He has also pledged to "Afghanize" the electoral process, reducing opportunities for international interference in the next vote.

Earlier this week, Jan Kubis, the new head of the United Nations mission in Afghanistan, vowed to be an "active partner" in the country's electoral process. —Ziaulhaq Sultani in Kabul contributed to this article.

Write to Dion Nissenbaum at dion.nissenbaum@wsj.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    

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